COLUMBUS — The US Men’s National Team’s surprising 2-0 loss at Guatemala in the fourth round of CONCACAF 2018 World Cup Qualifying didn’t just reverberate through North American soccer. It sent shock waves around the globe as well.
“I was back in England last Friday night and woke up at 6 o’clock in the morning and as it came up on my phone, I let out an audible exclamation and woke up my wife who said ‘what’s wrong?’” ESPN soccer play-by-play man Ian Darke said on Monday before the rematch in Columbus. “And I said ‘the US has lost to Guatemala.’ So yea, it was a shock.”
The 2-0 defeat in Guatemala City was the USA’s first loss to Guatemala since January 1988 (ending a run of 21 games unbeaten) and their first defeat to the country in World Cup qualifying. It was an uninspiring performance that left plenty of questions and few answers as to the current state of the USMNT program in the second World Cup cycle under Jurgen Klinsmann.
More importantly, it has left the United States in a perilous position when looking ahead to the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Halfway through the fourth round of CONCACAF qualifying (keep in mind the USA got a bye through the first three rounds of qualifying), the United States is on the outside looking in. If it ended today, the USMNT wouldn’t even qualify for the six-team final round, the Hexagonal, let alone the World Cup itself. They currently sit in third place in Group C on 4 points with Trinidad and Tobago on 7 points and Guatemala on 6 points.
If there’s any solace for the USMNT, they found themselves in the exact same situation four years ago during the 2014 World Cup qualifying cycle. The team came to Columbus, the budding fortress of American soccer, on just 4 points through 3 games in the group stage needing a win and facing what could potentially be a stunning early exit. The USMNT were able to squeeze out a 1-0 victory over Jamaica and eventually advanced to the Hexagonal and the World Cup in Brazil.
The stakes of this encounter with Guatemala aren’t lost on anyone close to US Soccer.
“It’s a potentially calamitous game,” Darke said. “This is the pivotal game. I think they are effectively out of the World Cup (with a loss). Think of that. They have qualified for every World Cup since 1990. To not even to get to the Hexagonal would be a massive and huge setback for the game in this country.”
ESPN soccer analyst and former national team star Kasey Keller believes there is certainly a sense of urgency in the squad approaching Tuesday’s crucial qualifier.
“I think you have to have a little bit of anxiety, a little bit of panic,” Keller said. “I don’t think anybody can ever rise to the highest level without having that little bit of trepidation. If you’re cruising around going ‘we’re going to be fine’ you’re kidding yourselves when it comes to World Cup qualifying. What it means to the people of Guatemala to win that game, you can’t put it into perspective.”
The current uncomfortable predicament facing US Soccer is symbolic of Jurgen Klinsmann’s five-year tenure as national team coach and technical director.
The program under Klinsmann has climbed some impressive peaks and sank to some distressing lows in a short period of time. A record 12-game winning streak in 2013 that featured a Gold Cup triumph and an impressive victory over eventual world champion Germany brought hope that a new day was indeed coming. Then at the 2014 World Cup, the USA survived the Group of Death and lost to Belgium in extra time in the Round of 16.
On the flip side, 2015 brought a deflating fourth-place finish in the Gold Cup, including a home loss to Jamaica, and a heartbreaking 3-2 loss to Mexico in the CONCACAF Cup. And if the struggles in qualifying this year weren’t enough, the US will also host the historic Copa America Centenario this summer and welcome the best teams from the Western hemisphere stateside. If the USMNT keeps up with their recent performances, their starring role in Copa America could be a very short one.
“The reason why there’s so much up and down is mixed messages,” lead ESPN soccer analyst and former MLS MVP Taylor Twellman said. “When Jurgen Klinsmann took over for Bob Bradley, he said there was going to be this new evolution of American style and I think the uproar is for fans that they’ve been successful the same way Bob Bradley and Bruce Arena were.”
To that point, Klinsmann downplayed expectations in June 2014 before arriving in Brazil by saying that winning the World Cup was “not realistic.” He quickly turned around and raised expectations for the current cycle by saying his goal for the 2018 World Cup is to reach the semifinals. It’s been a slog towards that goal thus far, though. The USMNT is just 4-4-1 in all games since the 2015 Gold Cup. Part of that could be the challenges facing Klinsmann in his second cycle leading the national team.
“Any time a coach, no matter what country, your second cycle with the national team is rockier,” Twellman said. “Everything you do in your first is new. Jurgen Klinsmann three weeks before the World Cup cuts Landon Donovan. He can’t do anything to top that now. So for the national team manager in his second go round, Bruce Arena had problems in 2006, you hit a wall. You have to find a way to one: motivate, two: find a tactical game plan that suits your players, and three: make sure everyone is going in the right direction. I think all three of those things are in question March 28, 2016.”
When Klinsmann was appointed five years ago, it was seen as a transformational step towards the future for US Soccer. Sweating it out over preliminary round qualifiers against Guatemala wasn’t on the list of hopes and dreams. And yet, it’s that inner conflict between always building for the future and focusing on grinding out results that has complicated the present for US Soccer.
The current USMNT squad is an eclectic mix of youth and experience. 37-year-old Tim Howard started in goal in Guatemala City fresh off a move to the Colorado Rapids. 33 year-old Clint Dempsey is now a veteran presence leading the front line. At the same time, young stars like Bobby Wood, Gyasi Zardes, and DeAndre Yedlin have been breaking in to the starting eleven. Now 17-year-old prodigy Christian Pulisic has been called into the squad for Tuesday’s rematch and there is hope yet that the Borussia Dortmund starlet may finally be the breakthrough American star on the world stage.
The constant pushes and pulls have left the USMNT at a point where they’re not quite rebuilding and developing a foundation for the future, but they’re not quite a group that’s peaking either. Or perhaps they’re trying to do both while really accomplishing neither. Another pivotal game for the US Soccer program takes place right after USA-Guatemala when the U-23 team will try to qualify for the 2016 Olympics in the second leg of their tie with Colombia.
“You need players to make that decision for you,” Keller said of the dynamic facing Klinsmann and his selection dilemmas. “You need someone to step up and go ‘I am your new centerback. Or I am your new attacking midfielder. And I think in this process since the World Cup I don’t know that there have been enough players to truly say ‘I am your starting eleven and if I’m fit, you know my name is the first one on the list.’ Look at what Marcus Rashford has done for Manchester United — that is taking advantage of the opportunity that is given to you.”
At least the USMNT is able to amend for the loss in Guatemala quickly, with just four days separating the home and away qualifiers. It’s an unusual and unique scenario for World Cup qualifying where international games can sometimes be months apart. For instance, Matchday 5 and 6 in these group stages don’t take place until Sept. 2 and 6. For the current squad with a mix of young players getting their first taste of CONCACAF qualifying and veterans who have been here before, it represents an immediate chance at redemption.
“If I’m in the squad and I just lost in Guatemala I’m really happy I have the three to four day turnaround to put it right and I don’t have to wait until September,” Keller said. “That it’s fresh in my mind, the disappointment, so that then I can come here and get a convincing win and put all that behind us.”
A win to right the ship for the USMNT is expected against Guatemala in Columbus, just as it happened four years ago against Jamaica. But nothing can ever be taken for granted in World Cup qualifying. A victory allows US Soccer the chance to keep pushing forward towards their goals and straightens the path to the Hexagonal and the World Cup. Anything less in Columbus on Tuesday and it could spell the beginning of the end for the Klinsmann Era.