Malik Willis is the biggest NFL free agency mystery

Malik Willis has been a curiosity ever since he burst onto the national scene in 2020.

In college, he was a prospect at Liberty with the potential to be a first-round draft pick. Now, he’s a compelling option for any NFL team looking for a starting quarterback. Willis remains the biggest mystery in this free agency class. No one knows exactly what he will become. What we do know is that someone will sign him to be the new face of their franchise.

Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com ranks Willis as the best available player when free agency officially begins at 4 p.m. ET on March 11. ESPN’s Dan Graziano predicts Willis will receive a two-year, $44 million contract. It’s important to remember that good quarterbacks rarely hit free agency. That usually only happens when they’re coming off a serious injury, or there are questions about their ability.  

Willis falls into the latter group. How can you accurately evaluate someone with only six career starts?

Based on his statistics with the Green Bay Packers, the 6-foot-11, 225-pound Willis looks promising. In two seasons, he completed 78.7% of his passes for 972 yards, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt with six touchdown passes and no interceptions. He also rushed for 261 yards on 6.2 yards per carry with three scores. However, the sample size is so small that it’s hard to predict how Willis would perform over a full 17-game season.

Willis was drafted in the third round in 2022 by the Tennessee Titans. As a rookie, he appeared in eight games, going 0-3 as a starter. He scored a touchdown, threw three interceptions, and lost two fumbles. After barely playing in his second season, Willis was traded to Green Bay to serve as a backup to Jordan Love. With the Packers, he performed well, including winning both of his starts in 2024 while filling in for an injured Love. That drew a lot of attention from a league always on the lookout for young quarterbacks.

Did Willis succeed because of his individual talent, or was it his supporting cast and coaching staff? It’s often hard to isolate performance in football. A player’s success depends heavily on external factors.

Because there’s a shortage of quality quarterbacks, some team will take a chance on Willis. Many speculate he will end up with the Arizona Cardinals. That makes sense since the new Arizona head coach, Mike LaFleur, is the younger brother of the Packers’ Matt LaFleur, who coached Willis. It’s a weak quarterback draft, and a 27-year-old veteran might be preferable to taking a chance on a rookie.

There are two main drawbacks to joining Arizona. First, it has historically been one of the league’s worst franchises. Second, the NFC West is the toughest division, featuring the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, the Super Bowl LXI favorite Los Angeles Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers. Willis might prefer to join the Miami Dolphins, the Pittsburgh Steelers, or the Minnesota Vikings.

Wherever Willis winds up, we’ll finally find out how good he really is.