Each week, before the college football rankings come out, we at The Comeback will give you a look at our predictions for upcoming rankings. These aren’t just based on our opinion of what the Top 25 and College Football Playoff rankings will look like. It’s also based on trends regarding how the voters and CFP committee have treated similar teams in the past.
Here’s the outlook on the College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 11 action, which should hold in place at the top but saw several notable teams take big losses when they could least afford to.
Biggest risers
https://vine.co/v/5tuWuPBH9De
Florida (No. 23 to No. 15)
It was a very bland week of games, meaning almost nobody came out with a big win. The exception was Florida, which went on the road and beat LSU in what was previously scheduled to be a Gators home game. The win clinched the SEC East for Florida, and with a win against Florida State or Alabama, the Gators would be in decent shape for a New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Washington (No. 6 to No. 5)
Washington took care of business this week against Arizona State, but the Huskies’ biggest win came when Houston beat Louisville on Thursday. That knocked a potential College Football Playoff rival out of the way and puts the Huskies in better position to make the Playoff if they win out.
Biggest fallers
Louisville (No. 5 to No. 10)
Louisville won’t actually drop that far in the rankings after a blowout loss to Houston, thanks to its overall resume. But the Cardinals’ Playoff hopes are dead just a week after it looked like they could sneak into the top four without winning their division.
Utah (No. 12 to No. 21)
Utah burst onto the scene last year by demolishing Oregon in Autzen Stadium, but this year, it was the Ducks who came to Salt Lake City and shocked the Utes. Utah was in good position to win the Pac-12 South before, and in decent position to make a New Year’s Six bowl, but now it’s out of contention for the division title entirely.
West Virginia (No. 14 to No. 20)
This still might be too high for the Mountaineers, given how the committee has treated them so far, but either way, West Virginia is now out of New Year’s Six contention after a terrible first half showing and home loss to Oklahoma. Mountaineers fans had been lambasting the Playoff committee for their relatively low ranking, but they can’t be too angry anymore.
Projected rankings
- Alabama (no change from previous College Football Playoff rankings)
- Ohio State (no change)
- Michigan (no change)
- Clemson (no change)
- Washington (+1)
- Wisconsin (+1)
- Oklahoma (+2)
- Penn State (no change)
- Colorado (+1)
- Louisville (-5)
- Oklahoma State (no change)
- USC (+1)
- Auburn (+2)
- Florida State (+3)
- Florida (+8)
- Nebraska (+2)
- Tennessee (+2)
- Boise State (+2)
- Western Michigan (+2)
- West Virginia (-6)
- Utah (-9)
- Stanford (+1)
- Texas A&M (+2)
- LSU (-8)
- Virginia Tech (+1)
5 games to watch next week
1. No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State
Ten years ago, The Game matched up the top two teams in the country. This year, it will match up No. 2 and No. 3, with the winner likely securing a College Football Playoff spot. This rivalry hasn’t been at the forefront of the college football landscape for awhile, thanks to Michigan’s struggles, but it’s back with a bang.
2. No. 13 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama
Hmm, remember the last Iron Bowl when Auburn had a surprising season and Alabama looked like one of the two best teams in college football? That was a doozy. Okay, there’s probably not going to be another Kick Six in this game, and Alabama is probably a lot better than Auburn, but an Iron Bowl between No. 1 and No. 13 should still be fun to watch.
3. Michigan State at No. 8 Penn State
This has been an incredibly disappointing year for Michigan State, but the Spartans have turned on the jets recently, dominating Rutgers (okay, that’s not hard) and nearly taking down Ohio State last week, just missing on the go-ahead two-point conversion with four minutes left. If Penn State and Ohio State both win this week, Penn State goes to the Big Ten Championship Game and the Playoff race gets even more interesting. So definitely watch this game, both because the Spartans could surprise and the implications that might have on the national picture.
4. No. 21 Utah at No. 9 Colorado
This game will decide the Pac-12 South title. If Colorado wins, the Buffaloes are going to the Pac-12 Championship Game. If Utah wins, USC makes the title game. Whoever makes that game has a shot to make a New Year’s Six bowl, even with a loss to Washington.
5. No. 5 Washington at Washington State
This game lost a little bit of its luster when Washington State lost to Colorado this week, but this will still be the best Apple Cup game in a long time. Washington needs a win to stay in Playoff contention, while Washington State can bolster its bowl resume. Expect a lot of points and a very fun game.