Each week, before the college football rankings come out, we at The Comeback will give you a look at our predictions for upcoming rankings. These aren’t just based on our opinion of what the Top 25 and College Football Playoff rankings will look like. It’s also based on trends regarding how the voters and CFP committee have treated similar teams in the past.
Here’s the outlook on college football’s rankings after Week 9 action, the first after this season’s College Football Playoff Rankings were released.
Biggest risers
Penn State (No. 20 to No. 10)
Penn State has a lot of things going for it. First, the Nittany Lions throttled Iowa, 41-14. Second, they’re playing their best football of the year. Third, the AP voters will likely fall in line with the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings, which put them at No. 12. And fourth, a lot of other decent teams lost. All that adds up to a 10-point jump.
Western Michigan (No. 17 to No. 12)
Western Michigan’s goal at this point is to be the top-ranked Group of Five team, and the Broncos extended their lead by moving to 9-0 with a win on Tuesday, and also by virtue of a lot of other pretty good teams losing. Four more wins, and Western Michigan will be rowing that boat to a New Year’s Six bowl.
Ohio State (No. 6 to No. 6)
No, Ohio State didn’t move up any spots after demolishing Nebraska, 62-3, but the lack of movement showed just how strong the firewall is at the top of the rankings. The top six teams are miles ahead of the rest of the county, meaning “top 10 ranking” doesn’t really mean as much as “top six ranking” this year. Until someone in the top six loses, nobody is breaking into that group.
Biggest fallers
Baylor (No. 13 to unranked)
Baylor has had glaring flaws all year, but played a joke of a schedule to start the season, so nobody really noticed. Now, the Bears have lost back-to-back games, at Texas and a 62-22 blowout loss at home to TCU. This isn’t a top 25-worthy team, and that will continue to show with games against West Virginia and Oklahoma upcoming.
Nebraska (No. 9 to No. 19)
Nebraska lost quarterback Tommy Armstrong against Ohio State after he suffered a violent concussion. But even so, the team unraveled, falling 62-3. Nebraska rose into the top 10 because it faced the soft part of its schedule early in the season, but the Huskers have now lost two straight, to Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Florida (No. 10 to No. 18)
Florida is still technically in the driver’s seat in the SEC East, but the Gators need to win more SEC games than Tennessee during the rest of the year, which could prove difficult with LSU still on the schedule. Meanwhile, here’s a list of divisions with teams that are projected to have someone ranked higher than anyone in the SEC East: SEC West, ACC Coastal, ACC Atlantic, Big Ten East, Big Ten West, Pac-12 North, Pac-12 South, MAC West, Big 12 (no divisions). That is… not great!
Projected rankings
- Alabama (no change from previous AP poll)
- Michigan (no change)
- Clemson (no change)
- Washington (no change)
- Louisville (no change)
- Ohio State (no change)
- Wisconsin (+1)
- Auburn (+3)
- Oklahoma (+3)
- Penn State (+10)
- West Virginia (+3)
- Western Michigan (+5)
- Utah (+3)
- Texas A&M (-7)
- North Carolina (+5)
- Florida State (+3)
- Colorado (+4)
- Florida (-8)
- Nebraska (-10)
- Oklahoma State (+2)
- Virginia Tech (+2)
- Washington State (+3)
- LSU (-8)
- Boise State (no change)
- Arkansas (+1)
5 games to watch next week
1. USC at No. 4 Washington
USC was written off after an abysmal start to the year, but the Trojans are actually playing like a top 25 team these days, despite not being in the top 25. They could give Washington a run for its money. Meanwhile, this is the Huskies’ toughest remaining obstacle to an undefeated season in a weak Pac-12.
2. Baylor at No. 9 Oklahoma
Baylor coach Art Briles was fired over the offseason for his role in covering up a wide-reaching sexual assault scandal. This weekend, Baylor assistant coaches and fans supported Briles — again, a man who enabled repeated sexual assaults — on the sidelines and in the stands. The Bears lost by 40 at home to rival TCU. Hopefully, Oklahoma runs it up just as much.
3. Ole Miss at No. 14 Texas A&M
Texas A&M is coming off a loss to Mississippi State that killed any chance it had of a College Football Playoff berth, and now the Aggies need to make sure they don’t fall off a cliff, with games against tricky Ole Miss and LSU teams to come. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is just trying to get back to .500 after a string of heartbreaking losses has left the Rebels at 4-5.
4. No. 23 LSU at No. 25 Arkansas
LSU’s offense had gotten going in recent weeks under interim coach Ed Orgeron, but it was stifled in a 10-0 loss to Alabama. The Tigers don’t have division or conference title hopes to play for, but Orgeron is still coaching for a job audition. Arkansas beat Florida this week and hopes this year’s NovemBERT can get it a solid bowl.
5. Mexico vs. USMNT in Columbus (Friday)
This is a truly terrible slate of games, and I can’t find another game even remotely worth watching. So that said, check out the other kind of football on Saturday, as the U.S. takes on Mexico in a World Cup qualifier in Columbus. If any match can get you into The Beautiful Game, it’s that one.