The Copa América Centenario is coming to the United States this summer, because if there is one thing top international soccer teams around the world like to do, it’s come to America and take our money. This time, though, there’s the added bonus of beating up on the United States in the process.
Summer after summer, top teams from around the world come to the U.S. to host exhibition matches that fill stadiums around the country. Before the 2014 World Cup, nearly a dozen teams set up camp in the United States for warm-up matches, in part because of the top-level facilities, but just as much because of the top-flight ticket prices from crowds they can draw.
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Imagine, then, the value of hosting the 100th anniversary of Copa América here, in the United States of America. A special edition of the South American tournament outside of South America where it can matter more and less, maybe at the same time, depending on how each team does. It’s a cash cow!
Will Brazil care about the tournament or will they be more focused on preparing for the Olympic tournament they will be hosting just a few weeks later? Will Colombia bring its top guns or show up with an experimental lineup that the United States can beat? Moreover, will fans care? No. They’ll buy tickets because even a Neymar-less Brazilian squad is worth the price of admission. Most of these teams will be.
We know what CONMEBOL gets out of this tournament—exposure in the United States and money, money, money—and we know what CONCACAF gets—a seat at the big boy table in this half of the world and money, money, money—but what (other than money) does U.S. Soccer get out of it? Well, we get a chance to prove we can play at this level, and home turf to do it on, too.
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At first, when the tournament was announced, it looked like a perfect opportunity for Jurgen Klinsmann’s team to show what it can do against some of the best teams in the world. But now? After losing in the Gold Cup on home turf and dropping a match to Mexico, also on home turf, to get the last seat at the Confederations Cup, what does anyone really think this Klinsmann-led group can or will do this summer? Here is what Klinsmann told USSoccer.com before the draw:
“Once you have your own group and you know if you would go through who you would meet then in the next stage. It obviously gives you a lot more meat to the bone. It helps you prepare things, but it also raises a little bit the bar on excitement and obviously in expectations. I think people start after the draw to realize just how big this tournament actually is. Hosting Copa America, which I think is the second biggest tournament in the world after the World Cup in our region, is just tremendous. And to measure ourselves with the best nations from South America and in our region, that is big time. You want to do well. You want to see how you can play against these big teams with their big players and give it a go and challenge them and prove a point.”
The United States came out of the draw with Colombia, ranked eighth in the most recent FIFA World Rankings, Costa Rica, ranked just ahead of the United States at 31st and Paraguay, a nation ranked 42nd in the world, but the best remaining team from their pod that the USMNT could have drawn. Of the three pods Klinsmann’s team was drawn with, only Colombia wasn’t the toughest possible option. Yes, the USMNT draw only could have been worse if they got Chile over Colombia, and that’s if you agree not to split the hairs of the top five or ten teams in the world rankings. Many believe Colombia, when at full strength, to be one of the absolute best in the world. The other two teams in Group A will give the United States fits, even if many believe both of those games are winnable.
And right on cue, Klinsmann remained his optimistic self when talking with the media after the draw, even if his goal for the tournament seems…underwhelming. This, from Yahoo:
“The objective is difficult to say but definitely coming through the group – clearly getting out of the group, even if it’s not easy,” Klinsmann said. “And then we have to learn how to win knockout games. There’s no better way to start it than Copa America.”
It’s the same thing over and over again. Get out of the group, learn how to win, facing the top teams in the world over and over and over again until Klinsmann thinks (maybe) we believe what he’s saying. Having said that, getting out of group could actually be a boon for Klinsmann this tournament, much like it was in Brazil for the World Cup in 2014.
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Let’s stop with the Group of Death talk. The U.S. does have a difficult group, much harder than Mexico’s for sure, with Uruguay being the best in that group (11th in FIFA rankings) and Jamaica and Venezuela rounding out the region. Brazil’s group is something of a joke, with Ecuador the 13th ranked nation per the FIFA rankings and Haiti and Peru serving as fodder for the other two. Argentina got Chile, Panama and Bolivia, which means that Chile and Argentina are only fighting to see which team will advance to face Uruguay and which will face Mexico in the knockout round.
Oh, right, and should the United States advance, they will likely face Brazil or Ecuador, which explains why Klinsmann is thinking about just getting out of the group right now.
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This is an enormous test for Klinsmann, who many in America thought should be on the hot seat after the disastrous result at the Gold Cup. Truth is, while he has brought in a lot more talent than his predecessors, Klinsmann’s results haven’t been any better, and his optimistic charm is no longer playing with the fans the way it did when he took the job.
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Copa América Centenario begins with the United States and Colombia on June 3, and just over four months out from the tournament Klinsmann called “the second biggest tournament in the world after the World Cup in our region,” it’s anyone’s guess who will be playing for his team. Both U.S. goalkeepers are essentially backups for their clubs in England at this point, with Brad Guzan relegated to the bench on a team about to get relegated out of the Premier League. Guzan has played just three times in 11 matches in 2016 for Aston Villa, while Howard has struggled with injury for Everton and has been essentially replaced by Joel Robles, playing just three of the last nine games for the club.
On the field, are there any locks for the U.S. team outside of Michael Bradley and Fabian Johnson? American Soccer Now does a wonderful ranking of the best American players around the world, and with their last ranking coming last November, they had Howard ranked fourth, behind Johnson, Geoff Cameron and Bradley, with Clint Dempsey, Darlington Nagbe and Guzan next. Cameron, now 30, isn’t even playing in the same position for Stoke as he plays for Klinsmann and as good as Dempsey is, it remains to be seen if he can score at the level the United States will need him against the South American defenders given the rigors of his professional career have started to catch up to him.
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Who will the back four be, and does that depend on if Johnson or Cameron are considered defenders or midfielders? DeAndre Yedlin made a big-ticket move to the EPL last summer and was put out on loan from Tottenham to Sunderland where he started twice in the last, what, 12 matches in all competitions? Is Tim Ream the best option in the back? Is Matt Besler or Matt Miazga, who just left MLS to sign with Chelsea? John Brooks? Omar Gonzalez?
Wasn’t Jermaine Jones going to be the next great center back for the United States?
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Jozy Altidore will surely be a part of the team, as mercurial as his game has been, and while Nagbe is something of a budding star for the Americans, he’s never played at this level before. Aron Johannsson made a big move to Germany this off-season, but hip surgery has him on the sidelines for a tournament like Copa América. We could go on and on, but it feels kind of depressing at this point.
And none of this is to say any of it is Klinsmann’s fault. It’s just the expectations we had for this team are not the expectations we have.
There is no chance the United States can win Copa América Centenario. None. Let’s get that out of our heads now.
Even if Colombia and Brazil and, hell, even Argentina and Chile don’t field top teams, there are probably five or six others who have a better path and more talent. The goal, as the goal always is for Klinsmann, is to get out of the group and then hope for the best. That worked in 2014 in Brazil. This time, on home turf, with a seemingly easier group than the World Cup, the task seems more daunting. We will see in a few months what each roster looks like, but until then, the United States optimism is muted; the trepidation under Klinsmann at an all time high.