Warning: There will be spoiler discussions of The Walking Dead TV show as well as the comic book series. This is your last chance. OK, continue…
The Walking Dead returned Sunday with its season six mid-season premiere (which is a thing that we’ve allowed to exist). Following a dreadful first-half of the season, the show needs a serious kick in the pants in terms of moving the story forward. That pants-kicker is likely to be a character known as Negan.
Those who have read the comic books know that Negan makes The Governor look like Herschel. He single-handedly changes the make-up of the story based on his will, with a little help from Lucille, his barbed-wire-laced baseball bat. To say that Rick and his people are worse for having crossed paths with him is an understatement.
Portrayed by Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Negan is expected to show up at some point in the very near future, at the very least before the season is over. We’ve already met a few of his motorcycle-bound henchmen (R.I.P.) but they only hint at the scope of Negan’s cruelty. Whether or not they stick to exactly what happens in the comics, it doesn’t matter. One way or another, multiple members of the group we’ve come to know are going to meet their maker very soon, either by Negan himself or at the hand of one of his henchmen.
The question is… which characters will get knocked off?
Both the comics and the TV show pride themselves on the concept that no one is safe and anyone can be killed at any given time. That’s true to an extent, but it’s pretty clear that there are at least two characters we can expect to make it to season seven: Rick and Carl. Carl’s got his own injuries to deal with right now and there’s no point in wasting that opportunity by having him get killed here.
After that, however, it’s pretty fair to say that all bets are off. Let’s try to place odds on who’s most likely to meet Lucille.
Glenn Rhee
Why It’ll Happen: Glenn remains the odds-on favorite to meet his demise mainly because that’s how it goes in the comic (again, we SAID spoiler alert). Negan lines up a group of people, including Rick, Carl, Maggie and Michonne before choosing Glenn at random to die. It’s a brutal scene that makes for a very unpleasant end to an otherwise pleasant guy. But that’s the point, right? Plus, the show has basically been telegraphing what’s coming with the multiple times that Glenn barely escapes sure death, as if they’re trying to lull us into a false sense of security. Surely he can’t die after going through all THAT, right?
Why It Won’t Happen: It’s the obvious move and the writers want to try to stay a step ahead of the audience during a storyline that’s otherwise ripped from the pages. We’re expecting it to be Glenn and that’s why it won’t be Glenn.
Chances It Happens: 90%. It just makes too much sense. Glenn remains a genuinely-good human being, he’s loved, he’s got a child on the way and he’s the moral compass that keeps the group in check. Naturally, he has to die.
Daryl Dixon
Why It’ll Happen: Talk about the perfect way to showcase just how much the tables have turned on Rick. Not only does Negan appear and demand control over his people but he takes out Rick’s trusted lieutenant and resident badass in order to make his point. It would be shocking, especially given the fan appreciation for Daryl, and it would change the dynamic of the show, but that’s the kind of tough choice TWD needs to consider right now.
Why It Won’t Happen: Have you read the memes? If Daryl dies, we riot.
Chances It Happens: 75%. They’re high for the reasons stated above as well as the fact that actor Norman Reedus has recently gotten his own motorcycle TV show on AMC. Wonder how much time he needs to film that…
Maggie Greene
Why It’ll Happen: If you’re going to pull the Glenn swerve, Maggie is the most obvious choice to replace him. Killing her would destroy Glenn, not to mention that hatred for Negan would go through the roof if he ends up murdering a pregnant woman in front of her husband.
Why It Won’t Happen: The Walking Dead is willing to go to a lot of dark places. But this might be too dark. Maybe not, but, probably yes.
Chances It Happens: 50%. Driving speculation that Maggie’s time on the show is short is a recent haircut, which would seem out of place on the show. Except that, the show is expected to do a time jump very soon, which could easily explain any hair changes.
Abraham Ford
Why It’ll Happen: In the comics, where Daryl doesn’t exist, Abe is the Daryl. Like Glenn, he’s killed in this storyline, though not by Negan, but with an arrow shot through his head from afar. It’s a jarring scene and it would be surprising for them not to include it in the TV show as well, but if they decide to chicken out on killing Daryl, Abe’s a good choice for the same reasons. Plus, they basically summed up his existential crisis in the first half of the season. What else does he have to do?
Why It Won’t Happen: Honestly, there aren’t many good reasons not to end Abraham’s story here.
Chances It Happens: 99%. Not killing him here is keeping him around just for the sake of it.
Father Gabriel Stokes
Why It’ll Happen: Because in the mid-season premiere, Gabriel did the worst thing a character could possibly do on The Walking Dead: He redeemed himself. That’s what we like to call a character arc completing itself. And you know what happens after that?
Why It Won’t Happen: He doesn’t die here in the comic and he still has the chance to provide Rick with an interesting foil down the road.
Chances It Happens: 30%. Assuming some of the bigger characters get axed (or batted), we’ll need a few familiar faces to cling to and he’s probably one of them.
Michonne
Why It’ll Happen: You want to start a fan riot? Forget Daryl, you have Negan kill Michonne. It’s completely out of left field in regards to what happens in the comic and it shows the audience just how much you mean business.
Why It Won’t Happen: Michonne remains the coolest character on the show and her story is far from over. Not to mention she’s valuable to the franchise on a much bigger scale. It would probably be a mistake to kill her off now.
Chances It Happens: 20%. Never say never, especially if the actor wanted to leave the show, but it just doesn’t make business sense.
Morgan Jones
Why It’ll Happen: If you’re going by the comic, Morgan should be dead by now. While he’s become an interesting character and his relationship with Carol is among the more intriguing on the show, it seems likely that he’s nearing the end of his run. He’s already starting to come to the end of his arc. The show is dying to prove to us that Morgan’s pacifism will get everyone in trouble one day and here’s the perfect way to show that.
Why It Won’t Happen: It feels like there’s another endgame in sight for Morgan, something that has to end between he and Carol.
Chances It Happens: 50%. He’s probably going to die this season but it probably won’t be at Negan’s hand.
Carol Peletier
Why It’ll Happen: Watching Carol morph from a meek, put-upon wife into a cold-blooded assassin has been one of the more fascinating aspects of the show’s six-season run. She’s formidable enough that her death at the hands of Negan would be seen by her friends as well as audiences as a sign that he’s the real deal.
Why It Won’t Happen: TWD creator Robert Kirkman is on record as having said he won’t kill Carol. Never say never and all that, but, she’s probably not dying anytime soon.
Chances It Happens: 5%. Just because you can’t ever close the door completely, but, Carol should be fine. Relatively-speaking.