The NHL season starts this week, but the mailbag never takes a break for you. Would you like to win money? There are expert (not expert) gambling tips for those of you looking to win (lose) money, talk about Ryan Johansen’s next contract, the proper response to watching a team win a playoff series on your field, and Nail Yakupov? Nail Yakupov. Mailbag!
1. Bet On It
https://twitter.com/Kaps_Locked/status/785582593479630848
I like that bet very much. Auston Matthews should win it, but look at what happened last season: Connor McDavid missed just enough games to take himself out of the running, which created a wide-open race. The gap between Matthews and Patrik Laine is similar, but +250 makes the wager worthwhile.
This made me wonder: What are some other sensible wagers for the upcoming season?
Let’s pretend you had $200 burning a hole in your pocket. First of all, tell me what that’s like! Do you go out for lunch every day? Purchase premium beers instead of the 36-pack of Ass Lite from Costco? You must be living the dream! Stop shoving your disposable income in my face, jerkoff!
Second of all, let’s imagine you took that $200 and sprinkled it evenly across these 20 bets I really like. All these numbers are from Bovada.
Total points
Jack Eichel (over 63.5)
Brad Marchand (over 52.5)
Henrik Zetterberg (under 53.5)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (over 47.5)
Eric Staal (under 49.5)
Alexander Radulov (under 53.5)
Filip Forsberg (over 63.5)
Taylor Hall (over 62.5)
Erik Karlsson (under 73.5)
Evgeni Malkin (over 71.5)
Tyler Johnson (over 49.5)
Auston Matthews (over 52.5)
Patrik Laine (over 40.5)
Mark Scheifele (over 50.5)
Daniel Sedin (under 60.5)
The general thought is seeing value in certain guys coming off down years and feeling that maybe some older guys (Zetterberg, Sedin) may decline a bit and could also suffer injuries. Marchand had 61 points last season without getting much power play time, Malkin will have 80 points if he stays healthy, Johnson shot four points below his career percentage and should bounce back, and everyone else is sort of a gut feeling.
Trophy bets
Hart Trophy: John Tavares (10/1)
Art Ross: John Tavares (17/2)
Calder Trophy: Patrik Laine (11/4)
Vezina Trophy: Pekka Rinne (8/1)
Norris Trophy: Kris Letang (7/1)
I don’t necessarily think these are the people that will win those trophies, but they have the best value. I thought Sidney Crosby was a lock before his concussion was announced, so I’ll take a stab at Tavares looking more like his 2014-15 self than what he did last season.
Let’s check back here in a year and see how much money we lost.
2. Waive goodbye
What other big names will be waived this year? Which teams will waiver claim?
— JeHossa's Witness (@jehossaswitness) October 10, 2016
I stared at this for like 10 minutes. “Other? Other big names?” Who are the big names that got waived in the first place? PA Parenteau? Ondrej Pavelec?
The Jets canning Pavelec is the best thing they could have done for their season. I’m mad at myself for having them barely making the playoffs in my predictions. There’s no guarantee that the Michael Hutchison/Connor Hellebuyck duo will be better, but the Jets had to move on. Pavelec has been very bad for a very long time, and the only thing worse than his play was the contract they gave him four years ago.
If your team waives a dude that has a significant cap hit, chances are, your team has gotten better.
3. Ryan Jo-handsome contract
If I were to extend Ryan Johansen today, my offer would be seven years and $45.5 million, a cap hit of $6.5 million. I could be talked up to $49 million (and probably would be by agent Kurt Overhardt). He’s topped 70 points once and seems like a 60-point guy who still has some upside on a team that should be better this season.
The Predators have the space and don’t have a logjam of elite RFAs to pay in the coming years. Filip Forsberg and P.K. Subban are signed through 2022, Roman Josi should fire his agent when his contract with a $4 million cap hit expires in 2020, and Pekka Rinne’s $7 million cap hit comes off the books in 2019.
As long as Overhardt doesn’t hold the Predators hostage like he did the Blue Jackets, this should be an easy negotiation.
4. Walk away
https://twitter.com/Mcassin11Mike/status/785525798090346496
I don’t like watching postgame shows when the Giants lose a regular-season football game, so there’s no way I’d hang around to watch the other team celebrate after beating my team at sports. I’ve never understood players who do that. It’s very masochistic. Don’t you feel bad enough? Do you want to attend the wedding of a girl who dumped you? Go inside, shower and go home.
I hope that someday a person watching the other team celebrate runs onto the field to fight that team. They get upset because they stepped on a logo or gave double middle fingers to someone’s retired number and storm out of the dugout. Then the other team lays a beating on him in front of a national audience. Then the fans come out of the crowd to defend their favorite player. Then the police get involved. Then the national guard. A mix of rosin, mace and blood creates a formula that starts the zombie apocalypse.
Sorry. I just really want a zombie apocalypse.
5. Nail Yakupov?
Nail Yakupov.
6. When will Canada get another NHL team? What’s the hold-up? Southern Ontario seems like a great place for one. Hamilton Mayhaps? Or two in Toronto?
Ashley
Folks, there are already seven bad teams in Canada, so why do we need an eighth that can’t win the Stanley Cup? More like Hamilton Mishaps, if you ask me frankly, folks.
We don’t even need like eight of the teams the NHL already has, so we definitely don’t need another Canadian franchise working as a feeder system for the American-based teams. As much as the Penguins enjoyed getting Phil Kessel from Toronto, the Avalanche enjoyed getting Jarome Iginla from Calgary, the Blackhawks enjoyed getting Andrew Ladd from Winnipeg, the Devils enjoyed getting Taylor Hall from Edmonton…
… Sorry, I lost track of what we were talking about. Oh yeah, contract Canada.