The 2021 NFL regular season is just 34.6 percent complete, but we’re already monitoring the league’s top MVP candidates. Here’s a look at the 10 players best aligned for MVP runs based on the first six weeks of the campaign.
1. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray: He ranks third in DVOA, third in passer rating, second in third-down passing, and second in big-time throws for the league’s only unbeaten team. This is a no-brainer.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady: The 44-year-old has 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions and only one turnover-worthy play all year for a 5-1 team.
3. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford: The league leader in DVOA at Football Outsiders ranks second to only Russell Wilson with a 116.6 passer rating, and the Rams are killing it at 5-1.
4. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: A slow start is still holding him back a bit, but the Bills look like prime contenders and Allen has 15 touchdowns to only three picks.
5. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: He ranks second in DYAR and DVOA, and he has the league’s fourth-best passer rating for the 5-1 Cowboys.
6. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: The league leader in air yards per attempt also leads all quarterbacks with 392 rushing yards for a 5-1 squad.
7. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: That was a huge second half against Washington for the AFC leader in QBR, but his eight interceptions and his team’s 3-3 record hold Mahomes back.
8. Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr: The rate-based numbers aren’t quite there, but Carr has crushed it on third down and in the fourth quarter of close games for a team that continues to win despite turmoil off the field.
9. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers: The rate-based numbers are lacking here as well, but the 2020 MVP is in the conversation because his team is 5-1, and he has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio the last five weeks.
10. Dallas Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs: With seven interceptions in six games, the sophomore is on pace to shatter the single-season NFL record of 14. That’s unlikely, but the pace gets him a spot on here for now.