Given the Big 12’s penchant for insecurity, it’s tough to imagine what the conference office is going through this weekend.
This is the league that got so bent out of shape from missing the College Football Playoff one year — in a setup where at least one major conference will miss out each year — that they commissioned a consulting firm to provide nonsensical mathematical suggestions on how to shape their conference.
When the Big 12 missed the Playoff, everyone else went, “Yeah, makes sense with how this is set up, but they have some good teams.” The Big 12 went “SORRY, SORRY WE’RE TRYING TO FIX IT.”
So what happens this year, when just two weeks in, the Big 12 is already in a major hole to miss out on the Playoff once again, particularly as it attempts to build up its viability as a conference?
It’s not a good idea to officially eliminate anyone from the Playoff after two weeks, because then you might become a target for internet revenge — or worse, you might be Clay Travis. But as all of the other major conferences have clear Playoff contenders, the Big 12 is in rough shape.
Assuming you can’t have more than one loss to feel good about your Playoff chances, the Big 12’s top two teams heading into the season — Oklahoma and TCU — don’t have any margin for error. Oklahoma got blown out by Houston in week one, losing 33-23, and they still have the full Big 12 slate — plus a game against Ohio State — to try to go undefeated. To make matters worse, Houston could also be fighting for a Playoff spot and will have the head-to-head resume-booster over the Sooners. In-state rival Oklahoma State was also a dark horse to win the league, but the team looks like a bit of a mess after losing to Central Michigan.
TCU looked like the Big 12’s next-best Playoff hope after Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs are no longer in the conversation after losing at home to Arkansas this week. They’ll also likely have to win out to have a chance at making it.
As it stands, the two Big 12 teams best positioned to make the Playoff are Texas and Baylor. The latter has a new coach this season after the sexual assault scandal within the football program, and despite having two wins over cupcakes, the Bears struggled with SMU for the first half this Saturday. Texas looked great in its opening-weekend win over Notre Dame, but the Longhorns still have a young team. Even after the Notre Dame win, the S&P+ statistical ratings only see Texas winning roughly 7.5 games.
So who is left?
This isn’t to say that one Big 12 team can’t go on a roll and make it to the Playoff. Weird things happen in college football, and while every team isn’t going to get lucky, one could. But the rest of the power conferences have teams in much better positions than the Big 12.
The Big 12 team with the best chance is Oklahoma, but Football Study Hall projects the Sooners to finish with just 8.82 wins, with only a 7.9 percent chance of finishing 11-1 or better. The rest of the country has far more Playoff contenders.
| Conference | Best Projected Wins in Conference | Teams With More Projected Wins Than Any Big 12 Team |
| ACC | 10.23 | 3 (Clemson, Florida State, Louisville) |
| SEC | 10.14 | 3 (Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia) |
| Big Ten | 9.97 | 2 (Michigan, Ohio State) |
| Pac-12 | 9.47 | 1 (Washington) |
That’s nine power conference teams expected to finish with more wins than any team in the Big 12. And that doesn’t even count the possibility of a non-power conference team making the Playoff, like Houston, with its aforementioned win over Oklahoma, or Notre Dame, which faces an uphill battle, but would have a strong resume by winning out against Michigan State, Miami, Stanford, Virginia Tech and USC.
On some level, this is just the Big 12 getting unlucky. Oklahoma would probably beat Houston if the two played again, and TCU could just as easily have beaten Arkansas. However, that’s not going to be a sufficient answer for a league with an overwhelming inferiority complex.
Maybe lady luck will reverse her fortunes, and the Big 12 has teams good enough to take advantage of a little luck. But missing two of the first three Playoffs is a much more likely reality than any reversal of fortunes.